Astronomers have identified a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, which has a small chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. While the impact probability is just over 1%, experts stress that there is a 99% chance it will miss.

“We are not worried at all, but this asteroid deserves close monitoring,” said Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).

Asteroid’s Path and Current Observations

The asteroid was first detected last month using a telescope in Chile and is estimated to measure between 130 and 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) in diameter.

On December 25, 2023, 2024 YR4 made its closest approach to Earth, passing 800,000 kilometers away, which is about twice the distance of the moon. Scientists discovered it two days later and have since been analyzing its orbit to determine any future risk.

At present, the asteroid is moving away from Earth, and it will fade from visibility over the next few months. It won’t be seen again until 2028, when astronomers will have another chance to track its movements and refine their calculations.

Can the Impact Probability Be Ruled Out?

Researchers are now searching through archived sky surveys from 2016, when the asteroid may have previously passed near Earth. If older observations confirm its past location, scientists could more accurately determine whether it will pose a threat in 2032 or if the risk drops to zero.

“If we don’t find that detection, the impact probability will shift slightly as new observations are made,” Chodas explained.

The European Space Agency (ESA) notes that asteroids of this size typically impact Earth only once every few thousand years. A collision could cause significant local damage, which is why 2024 YR4 now ranks at the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list.

No Immediate Danger, but Monitoring Will Continue

NASA reassures that no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1% at this time.

Scientists will continue tracking 2024 YR4, and with additional data, they expect to rule out any possibility of impact well in advance of 2032.