The European Commission has unveiled a bold plan to end all Russian energy imports by 2027, a move aimed at reducing dependency on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. The new roadmap mandates that all 27 EU member states, whether coastal or landlocked, must phase out Russian oil, gas, and nuclear materials. This includes a ban on new and short-term contracts by the end of 2025, while long-term agreements, which cover two-thirds of Russian gas supplies, must be terminated by 2027. The EU also plans to target shadow fleets involved in smuggling Russian oil and will halt imports of Russian nuclear fuel.

Key Steps in the Phase-Out Process

Under the European Commission’s proposal, member states are required to submit national strategies outlining how they will eliminate Russian energy from their systems. Brussels is committed to ensuring that, even under a future peace deal, Russian imports will never again be allowed into the EU.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen firmly stated, “Putin has weaponized gas. We must never allow that dependency again.” This firm stance reflects Europe’s determination to sever ties with Russian energy sources, particularly in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Russia Faces Loss of a Critical Market

The EU’s decision to phase out Russian energy imports marks a significant shift in energy dynamics. In 2024, the EU imported 31.62 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian pipeline gas and 20.05 bcm of liquefied natural gas (LNG)—making up 19% of total EU consumption. France, Spain, and Belgium were the primary recipients of Russian LNG, receiving nearly 90% of the bloc’s imports.

The EU has taken a pragmatic approach to ease the transition for companies currently bound by long-term contracts with Russian suppliers, which could extend until 2040. Companies are now allowed to invoke “force majeure,” which is a legal clause that permits them to back out of contracts due to uncontrollable circumstances, such as geopolitical conflict. According to Jørgensen, companies will not be held liable under EU legal advice, although they may still face lawsuits, as ongoing legal disputes between EU firms and Russian suppliers have already amounted to €18.5 billion.

Energy Sovereignty Amid Legal and Political Challenges

This strategic move arrives during ongoing trade discussions between Brussels and Washington. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the U.S. could increase LNG exports to Europe, which could potentially help reduce the EU’s trade surplus. As Europe strives for energy independence from Russia, it must balance its desire to reduce exposure to Russian fossil fuels with economic considerations.

While the plan has garnered support, there has been notable resistance from some EU member states. Hungary and Slovakia have opposed the full ban, citing the potential economic damage such a move could inflict. These countries reacted strongly when Ukraine announced it would stop allowing Russian gas transit through its territory by the end of 2024. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserted, “We will not let them earn billions on our blood.”

Political Sensitivities and Internal Divisions

To navigate these internal divisions, the European Commission has opted for a strategy that avoids traditional sanctions, which would require unanimous support from all member states. Instead, the EU will use qualified majority voting to implement the new energy strategy, a move designed to prevent vetoes from Russia-friendly nations like Hungary and Slovakia.

Despite these political and legal challenges, Brussels remains committed to helping EU companies break free from long-term contracts with Russian suppliers. Elisabetta Cornago, an energy analyst, called the Commission’s plan a “major step forward.” While acknowledging the legal risks involved, she emphasized that the move demonstrates the EU’s serious intent to end its reliance on Russian fossil fuels once and for all.

The road ahead will not be easy, as the EU faces both legal hurdles and internal divisions that could slow the implementation of the plan. However, the Commission’s bold strategy signals a shift in Europe’s energy priorities. As the EU moves toward energy independence from Moscow, it also grapples with the complex task of ensuring that the transition to alternative energy sources is both feasible and sustainable.

This development represents a critical turning point in the EU’s ongoing effort to reassess its energy strategies in the face of external threats. With a deadline set for 2027, the EU will be closely monitoring the progress of its member states in phasing out Russian energy supplies.