Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential campaign hinged on winning back the “blue wall” states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states, essential to Democratic victories from 1992 to 2012, were crucial for Harris to secure the presidency. However, former President Donald Trump managed to reclaim these states, thereby winning the election.
Harris campaigned heavily in these states, but Trump ultimately won Michigan by 1.4 points, Pennsylvania by 2.1 points, and Wisconsin by 0.9 points. These narrow defeats, coupled with Trump’s gains in suburban and rural areas, prevented Harris from reaching the required 270 electoral votes. Despite strong support in urban and suburban areas like Oakland County, Michigan, and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, her gains weren’t enough to offset Trump’s rural and minority voter support, including in traditionally Democratic-leaning regions.
The economy emerged as a central issue, with many voters favoring Trump on this front. Polls showed that 32% of voters viewed the economy as their top concern, and they supported Trump over Harris by a wide margin. Additionally, Harris faced challenges within union support; while she held a strong lead with some unions, Trump gained significant backing from other labor groups, which proved critical in the blue wall states.
Another challenge came from a shift in support among Arab American voters, many of whom voted for Trump due to frustrations over the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza conflict. This change was particularly notable in Dearborn, Michigan.
Although Harris ran a vigorous 107-day campaign, following Biden’s decision not to seek re-election, her coalition fell short. Ultimately, Trump’s inroads across multiple voter demographics and his gains in economically concerned voters led to his victory, flipping the blue wall states back to the Republican column.
