On November 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved significant changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, expanding the circumstances under which the country would consider using nuclear weapons. This adjustment is seen as a direct response to the United States’ recent decision to allow Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons for longer-range strikes against Russia.
The revised doctrine, which had been discussed since September, includes a broader range of scenarios in which Russia could launch a nuclear strike. Previously, Russia’s nuclear policy focused on retaliation in response to incoming ballistic missile attacks or a direct threat to its nuclear arsenal. The new doctrine, however, extends these provisions to include the possibility of nuclear retaliation in response to various forms of aggression, such as attacks involving strategic aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, and other advanced weaponry crossing Russia’s borders.
The expansion of Russia’s nuclear threshold comes after the US and UK had debated allowing Ukraine to use Western-made missiles, such as the ATACMS, to target Russian territory deeper within its borders. On Sunday, US President Joe Biden approved this move, which was followed by an emergency update to Russia’s nuclear posture the next day.
The Kremlin’s decision to broaden its nuclear doctrine is widely seen as a strategic move to deter Western nations from further escalating the conflict. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, confirmed that these changes were a direct response to Ukraine’s new capabilities, enabled by Western military support.
While the use of nuclear weapons remains a highly sensitive and perilous issue, these doctrinal changes highlight Russia’s growing frustration with Western involvement in the war. Despite previously issuing nuclear threats, Putin has not yet acted on them, but his rhetoric continues to escalate as the war with Ukraine intensifies. The shift in policy also reflects broader concerns that the conflict could spread beyond its current regional scope, with the potential to involve NATO directly.
The timing of the announcement—just ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meeting with President Biden—suggests that Russia is trying to apply pressure on the West to reconsider its stance on supporting Ukraine’s offensive capabilities.
This development signals a significant increase in the stakes of the ongoing conflict, as both sides prepare for an even more volatile phase of the war.
