Donald Trump’s victory in the 2025 US presidential election has not notably shifted voting patterns in Europe, according to a report by the European Policy Centre. Despite initial celebrations from right-wing leaders across Europe, no significant change in voter behavior was observed following Trump’s win. The report found that European electoral habits continue to be largely influenced by domestic issues rather than by US political developments.

Trump’s Victory and Its Limited Impact on European Elections

In the wake of Donald Trump’s 2025 election victory, right-wing leaders across Europe initially expressed optimism, hoping the outcome would provide a political boost. However, as the months passed, Trump’s announcement of tariffs on European exports and his public disagreements with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy led to predictions of a backlash in European politics.

Despite these developments, a study conducted by the European Policy Centre revealed that European voting behavior remained unaffected by Trump’s win. The analysis, which compared polling data before and after the US election, showed no significant shifts in political support across the continent. Javier Carbonell, an expert from the European Policy Centre, emphasized that European voting trends remain largely independent of US politics. “At the electoral level, European voters remain largely independent from US political trends,” Carbonell stated.

Continued Stability in European Right-Wing Support

From October 2024 to April 2025, support for right-wing parties across Europe showed little variation, according to the study. Countries such as Austria, Germany, Spain, and Portugal saw stable support for right-wing parties, indicating that Trump’s win had little influence on these political movements. Strong right-wing countries like Poland, Hungary, Italy, and the Czech Republic also maintained high levels of support for their respective political parties.

In contrast, nations with weaker far-right movements, including Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, and Finland, reported minimal changes in political support. Romania, however, was excluded from the analysis due to unreliable election data following its annulled 2024 presidential election.

On average, right-wing support across Europe remained steady at around 24-25%. Carbonell’s analysis highlights that Trump’s influence on European voters has been negligible. “Trump has not changed voter preferences in Europe,” he concluded.

Worsening Public Perception of Trump in Europe

Public perception of Donald Trump in Europe has deteriorated since his election win. Surveys conducted by Le Grand Continent and Cluster 17 revealed that only 6% to 8% of citizens in Germany, Spain, and France consider Trump an “ally.” This is a stark contrast to his earlier years in office, when he enjoyed a more favorable view in some parts of Europe.

US reputation indices, which measure public opinion of the United States, fell by 20 to 30 points in countries like Denmark, Sweden, Germany, and France, according to YouGov. This decline can be attributed in part to Trump’s economic policies, which negatively impacted traditional right-leaning voter groups, including workers in France’s Cognac and Italy’s wine sectors.

Limited Success for European Right-Wing Movements Inspired by Trump

While some European right-wing parties attempted to capitalize on Trump’s slogans and political momentum, their efforts achieved only limited success. For example, Spain’s Vox party held a “Make Europe Great Again” summit in Madrid, but the event had minimal impact on shifting public opinion. Similarly, an interview between Elon Musk and Alice Weidel of Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) did not significantly alter political discourse in the country.

“These efforts didn’t fail outright, but internal European factors quickly counteracted them,” Carbonell explained. Unlike in Canada, where Trump’s victory reshaped political trends, Europe’s political landscape remained rooted in its own internal dynamics.

Internal Issues Drive Right-Wing Support in Europe

Tabea Schaumann, a fellow at the European Policy Centre and co-author of the study, highlighted that local economic and social issues continue to drive right-wing support in Europe. Economic stagnation, rising inequality, cultural tensions, and a general distrust in political systems have all fueled the growing popularity of right-wing parties. Additionally, issues such as backlash against sustainability initiatives, feminism, and diversity continue to motivate support for far-right movements.

In Spain, for example, the ongoing conflict in Catalonia has played a significant role in shaping political attitudes, further distancing the region from broader European trends. Schaumann noted that, while Trump’s political rise did influence certain countries globally, it did not have the same effect in Europe, where domestic concerns remain at the forefront of voters’ minds.

Trump’s 2025 election victory has had little to no impact on European voting trends. While some right-wing movements attempted to leverage his political success, the internal dynamics of European politics—driven by economic, social, and cultural issues—remain the dominant factors shaping electoral outcomes. As Europe moves forward, it will likely continue to prioritize its own issues, with little influence from the US political landscape.