A potential 10% tariff on all EU exports to the US could have a significant impact on several European countries, especially those with a large share of their trade directed toward the US market. While Germany, Ireland, and Italy are often the focus of discussions on US-EU trade, a broader look reveals that other EU nations could also be heavily affected. Euronews Business examines the EU countries most reliant on US exports and what the impact of such a tariff might be.
Before the 2024 US presidential election, Donald Trump, in his campaign rhetoric, warned that the EU would face steep costs if the US was hit with tariffs. He claimed that while the EU didn’t purchase American products like cars and farm goods, it sold millions of cars to the US, signaling a looming trade battle. Following Trump’s victory, his proposal to introduce a 10% tariff on all EU goods is gaining traction, and the European Union is now considering how to respond.
So, which EU countries stand to lose the most from such a tariff? How much of each country’s exports go to the US, and what does this mean for their economies?
Top EU Exporters to the US
In 2023, Germany was by far the largest exporter of goods to the US, shipping €157.7 billion worth of goods, according to Eurostat. Italy followed with €67.3 billion, and Ireland sent €51.6 billion worth of exports to the US. Together, these three countries accounted for more than half (55%) of all EU exports to the US.
Other notable exporters to the US include France (€43.9 billion), the Netherlands (€40.5 billion), Belgium (€31.3 billion), and Spain (€18.9 billion). If the proposed 10% tariff were to be implemented, it would create significant challenges for these countries due to the sheer volume of trade involved.
US Market Share in EU Exports
While export volume is an important factor, it’s equally critical to consider how much of each country’s total exports are directed to the US. “Extra-EU exports” refers to trade with countries outside the European Union, so this measure excludes intra-EU trade.
In 2023, Ireland had the highest percentage of its extra-EU exports going to the US, with nearly half (45.8%). This underscores how heavily Ireland relies on the US market. Seven other EU countries also had more than 20% of their exports going to the US, including Finland, Austria, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, and Sweden.
On the other hand, Spain had the lowest share among the EU’s four largest economies, with just 13% of its extra-EU exports going to the US. France followed with 16%. Several smaller EU nations, such as Slovenia, Cyprus, and Greece, have even lower shares of exports directed to the US, with less than 10%.
Ireland: The Most US-Dependent EU Nation
Among EU countries, Ireland stands out as the most dependent on US exports. In 2023, over a quarter (26.6%) of Ireland’s total exports went to the US, making it the clear outlier when it comes to reliance on the American market.
Other EU countries with significant US export shares include Finland (11.1%), Italy (10.7%), and Germany (9.9%). Among the EU’s top four economies, France exported 7.3% of its goods to the US, while Spain’s share was just 4.8%.
Nordic Countries and Other EU Nations with Strong US Export Ties
The Nordic countries also have a significant presence in US markets. Besides Finland (11.1%), Sweden (8.9%) and Denmark (8.3%) rank among the top 10 EU countries in terms of export share to the US. Other countries with notable shares include Austria (7.1%), Portugal (6.8%), and Belgium (6.3%).
Overall, 10 EU countries had more than 5% of their exports going to the US in 2023. This suggests that a 10% tariff would not only hit the major exporters like Germany, Ireland, and Italy, but also affect other nations with strong ties to the US.
Impact on Sweden and Finland
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has acknowledged that the potential tariff could pose a “severe impact” on Swedish exports. In light of this, Sweden is preparing for various economic scenarios, including a broader trade war between the US and China that could result in higher tariffs for many countries, including Sweden.
Similarly, Finnish exporters are facing an uncertain future if the US imposes tariffs on European goods. The US is Finland’s largest trading partner outside the EU, and industries like steel, machinery, paper, and technology are particularly vulnerable to higher US trade barriers.
The US Share of British Exports
For countries outside the EU, the US also plays a key role as a trading partner. The UK, for example, had 15.6% of its total goods exports destined for the US in 2023, amounting to approximately €74 billion. This highlights the continued importance of the US market for European exports, even for nations no longer part of the EU.
Conclusion: The Far-Reaching Effects of a 10% Tariff
A 10% tariff on all EU exports to the US would have a significant economic impact, not only on large economies like Germany, Ireland, and Italy, but also on smaller nations that are heavily reliant on US trade. The proposed tariff would likely create substantial disruption across the EU, with countries like Ireland, Finland, Sweden, and Austria facing particularly sharp consequences. While the tariff would certainly affect the largest exporters, even countries with smaller overall export volumes but high US trade shares would feel the pinch. The EU is thus facing a challenging situation as it considers its response to the proposed tariff and its potential consequences.
