Donald Trump has plenty to celebrate after winning the 2024 election, but another potential victory may be looming: the possibility that his sentencing in New York may never take place. Despite being convicted of 34 felony counts related to falsifying business records in order to cover up a hush money payment to Stormy Daniels, Trump could avoid any punishment. Here’s why.

1. The Supreme Court’s Presidential Immunity Ruling

A major factor in Trump’s legal strategy is a Supreme Court decision from July 2024. In a ruling on Trump’s federal election interference case, the Court addressed presidential immunity, stating that evidence of a president’s official actions can’t be used in criminal trials. Trump argues that some of the evidence presented against him in his New York trial—including testimony from his former White House communications director, Hope Hicks—violates this principle.

Trump claims that even if the hush money payment and falsified business records weren’t part of his official presidential duties, certain evidence used in his trial still runs afoul of the Supreme Court ruling. If Judge Juan Merchan rejects this argument, Trump can appeal, and legal experts say it’s likely that the November 26 sentencing date will be postponed while the immunity issue is resolved. This could delay or potentially prevent any punishment for an extended period.

2. The Political Backlash of Sentencing a President-Elect

A second hurdle for sentencing Trump is the political storm it could create. Now that Trump has been elected president again, moving forward with sentencing him could spark a national crisis. According to Mark Bederow, a New York defense attorney, the political ramifications of sentencing a president-elect could tear the country apart. Given the political polarization in the U.S., any attempt to punish Trump could provoke a fierce backlash, making it difficult for judges to ignore the broader political context.

Bederow notes that “any judge can’t ignore the 800-pound gorilla in the room,” referring to Trump’s recent electoral victory. The fear of inflaming tensions may lead judges to reconsider or delay any sentencing, taking into account the potential national unrest.

3. Legal Challenges Based on His Election

Trump’s victory in the 2024 election also provides him with new legal arguments to delay or avoid sentencing. The Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity raised concerns about legal proceedings that could interfere with a sitting president’s duties. Although this ruling applied to federal cases, Trump’s legal team could argue that similar concerns apply to a state court sentencing a president-elect.

Under the U.S. Constitution, power is divided between the federal government and the states. Trump may argue that state courts, including the New York court overseeing his case, lack the authority to sentence a president-elect or impose a penalty that would extend into his presidency. Legal experts disagree on whether this argument would apply before Trump’s inauguration or only after he takes office, but the legal uncertainty could provide Trump with additional grounds to avoid sentencing.

4. Complications of a Retrial

If Trump succeeds in overturning his convictions, a retrial could be on the table. However, this comes with its own set of challenges. Legal experts warn that retrying Trump after a long delay could present serious due process issues. Key witnesses might no longer be available, and memories could fade, making it difficult for the prosecution to build a strong case. In these situations, defendants often argue that retrying a case after such a long gap violates their constitutional right to a fair trial.

Even if prosecutors move forward with a retrial, Trump’s defense could use these concerns to challenge the fairness of the process, potentially delaying or preventing any new legal proceedings for years.

5. Trump’s Age Could Play a Role in Sentencing

Even if Trump’s convictions stand and sentencing eventually occurs, his age could influence the outcome. At 78 years old, Trump is already in the age range where courts sometimes show leniency, particularly for defendants without a history of criminal convictions. Legal experts note that judges may consider Trump’s age, especially since he would be 82 by the end of his second presidential term.

As Catherine Christian, a former Manhattan prosecutor, pointed out, “For someone who’s 78 who has no (prior) criminal convictions, the court will look at that.” Trump’s age could weigh in his favor if a judge decides to impose a lighter sentence or even forego punishment altogether.

6. Public Perception and Political Leverage

With Trump’s victory in the 2024 election, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. As a president-elect, Trump’s legal standing has been significantly bolstered. The political implications of sentencing him now extend far beyond the courtroom, and his legal team can use his public support and political mandate to push for delays or changes in the proceedings.

As Mark Bederow observed, Trump’s situation has changed “radically” since his election, putting him in a much stronger position legally. With his public support higher than ever, Trump’s chances of avoiding sentencing have increased, and his legal team can point to this shift in power to argue for a more favorable outcome.

Conclusion

Several factors make it increasingly unlikely that Donald Trump will ever face sentencing for his 34 charges. The Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, the political firestorm that could follow his sentencing, and new legal challenges stemming from his presidential election all contribute to a shifting legal landscape that benefits him. Furthermore, the potential complications of a retrial and his age could further delay or minimize any punishment.

Given these circumstances, Trump’s legal team is in a much stronger position than before, and the chances of him being sentenced in the near future seem slim. As Trump takes office for a second term, his legal battles are far from over, but his chances of avoiding punishment have significantly improved.