An old Soviet spacecraft, Kosmos 482, is expected to fall back to Earth in an uncontrolled descent around 10 May 2025. The probe, launched in 1972 on a failed mission to Venus, never escaped Earth’s orbit. Experts now say the spacecraft’s return is unlikely to cause harm, but it remains under watch by space agencies. The capsule, which weighs nearly 500 kilograms, may survive re-entry due to its tough design, raising minor safety concerns.

The Story of Kosmos 482

Kosmos 482 was part of the Soviet Union’s Venus exploration program during the Cold War. It was launched on 31 March 1972 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Its goal was to land on Venus and study the planet’s harsh environment.

However, the rocket booster failed shortly after launch. The probe did not gain the speed needed to leave Earth’s orbit. While parts of the spacecraft fell back within a decade, its lander has remained in orbit for over 50 years.

The lander is a strong, round capsule about one meter wide. It was built to survive Venus’s high temperatures and pressures. This tough build makes it more likely to survive the fiery fall through Earth’s atmosphere.

Experts Predict Re-Entry Soon

Dutch space expert Marco Langbroek estimates the spacecraft will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around 10 May 2025. If it survives the descent, it could hit the ground at speeds of up to 150 miles per hour (242 km/h).

Langbroek noted:

“This capsule was made to survive a crash on Venus. If any object can make it through re-entry, it’s this one.”

The risk of it harming people, however, is very low.

Risk Is Small, But Real

Space and risk experts stress that the chance of injury is slim. Langbroek compared it to the odds of being hit by a meteor—possible, but very rare.

Astrophysicist Dr. Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics says much depends on the condition of the heat shield. If the shield is damaged or degraded after decades in space, the capsule may burn up. But if the shield is intact, the lander could survive and reach the ground.

“It’s not the first time space junk has come down without control,” McDowell added. “Most of the time, it lands in the ocean or in remote areas.”

Likely to Fall Into the Ocean

The re-entry zone spans between 51.7 degrees north and 51.7 degrees south latitude, covering areas from Canada to Argentina, including cities like London, New York, and Sydney. However, since over 70% of Earth is ocean, the most likely outcome is a water impact.

Langbroek emphasized:

“Statistically, it will fall into the ocean, like most space debris.”

In the past, similar events occurred without serious issues. For example, China’s Tiangong-1 space lab fell into the Pacific Ocean in 2018. A year later, a Chinese Long March rocket booster also returned in an uncontrolled descent.

Why It Matters

Uncontrolled re-entries are reminders of the growing problem of space debris. Thousands of objects orbit the Earth, many no longer in use. While most burn up in the atmosphere, larger pieces can sometimes survive.

The case of Kosmos 482 is unique due to its age and design. Launched during the Cold War, it now returns as a historical relic and a lesson in long-term space safety.

Space agencies and private tracking groups will keep a close eye on Kosmos 482’s descent. Final predictions will improve as the spacecraft gets closer to Earth.

For now, there is no public safety alert, and no need for concern. But scientists say continued tracking is key to understanding where and how the capsule might land.