ASML, a Dutch chip equipment leader, expects little impact from new US restrictions on AI chip exports to China. The company reaffirmed its 2024 and 2025 guidance, stating the curbs would not materially affect its business. ASML shares rose 0.9% to €664 following the announcement.

Exemptions and Business Resilience

The US tightened AI chip export rules, targeting products with US technology, but exempted ASML and Tokyo Electron Ltd. This exemption supports continued cooperation with allies, according to US officials. ASML acknowledged that similar Dutch restrictions could eventually affect its DUV lithography systems exported to China.

In September, the Dutch government aligned with US policies, requiring ASML to obtain licenses for spare parts and software updates for Chinese clients. Despite these hurdles, ASML anticipates minimal disruption to operations.

Positive Long-Term Outlook

ASML maintained its 2025 revenue forecast of €30–35 billion, with 20% expected from China. Although weak third-quarter earnings temporarily impacted shares, they have since recovered.

The company projects annual sales of €44–60 billion by 2030, citing strong semiconductor demand globally. ASML emphasized its confidence in long-term growth, driven by worldwide wafer needs rather than regional factors.