The sudden offensive poses the biggest challenge to Syria’s president in 13 years of civil war. Recent days have seen a dramatic reversal of Syria’s status quo.
Syrian officials insisted the army would hold Hama, even as insurgents advanced. Soon after, the military admitted its retreat, handing Hama to rebel factions for the first time. After seizing two major cities, the insurgents, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now aim for Homs.
Tens of thousands flee Homs, bracing for the next battle. Homs is strategically vital, connecting Assad’s strongholds to Damascus. HTS appears ready to directly challenge Assad’s regime, a shift from years of consolidating power in Idlib. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani confirmed their goal of toppling Assad in a CNN interview.
Assad’s Allies Face Challenges
The Syrian army, underpaid and poorly equipped, struggles with low morale and desertion. Assad’s forces might have lost years ago without aid from Russia and Iran. After losing Aleppo and Hama, Assad raised soldiers’ salaries by 50%, but it may not suffice.
Russian air support in Hama was limited, sparking speculation that Moscow’s war in Ukraine is depleting resources. Despite setbacks, Russia’s interests—like its Tartus naval base—make it unlikely to abandon Assad. The base’s security is crucial, especially if rebels capture Homs, threatening the Syrian coast.
Iran and Hezbollah, vital to Assad’s survival, face their own hurdles. Hezbollah, weakened by recent Israeli offensives, has sent elite forces to Homs. Yet Tehran appears less inclined toward direct military engagement, contrasting its aggressive past. Iraqi militias might intervene, but Iraq’s government and Shia leader Moqtada al-Sadr oppose this.
Divided Opposition
Assad’s survival partly hinges on rebel divisions. Groups opposing him include HTS, Kurdish-led forces in the northeast, and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. The Islamic State (IS) could exploit the chaos to expand beyond desert outposts.
Rebel disunity helped Assad endure in the past. Minority groups, including Assad’s Alawite sect, still back him, fearing a jihadist takeover. Despite HTS renouncing its al-Qaeda ties, many view it as extremist.
Assad’s fate depends on key external players—Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Previous agreements, like the Idlib deal, managed conflicts, but the rapid escalation may force them to reassess their strategies. Whether Syria remains under Assad or transitions to new leadership will hinge on their decisions.
