The fate of Russia’s military presence in Syria is uncertain following the removal of long-time ally Bashar al-Assad. Russia operates two key bases in Syria: the Tartus Naval Base on the Mediterranean coast and the Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia. These bases are critical to Moscow’s regional and global military strategy.

Conflicting Reports on Russian Pullback

Ukraine’s military intelligence claims Russia is withdrawing troops, weapons, and equipment from these bases. Satellite images suggest warships have left Tartus and are now anchored 8 to 13 kilometers offshore. Analysts report sightings of frigates, submarines, and support vessels waiting at sea.

Despite these reports, Russia denies any withdrawal. Kremlin officials insist they are securing the bases and maintaining their presence. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov states that Russian warships will remain stationed at Tartus. Russian media claims a deal protects the bases by offering Assad and his family refuge in Russia.

Potential Consequences for Moscow

Losing these Syrian bases would significantly weaken Russia’s strategic influence. The Tartus base gives Russia critical access to the Mediterranean for operations in Africa. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that a loss would disrupt logistics, resupply missions, and troop rotations, particularly affecting operations in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa.

The future of these bases remains uncertain as geopolitical tensions continue to rise.